Here is my position: as a person who has been interested in Michele Bachmann's political career since I first heard her voice on local Christian radio in 1999...
...I state categorically that Michele Bachmann is not "done"--until she really is "done." In this context, that means: I believe that until the GOP nominations for the White House are officially determined next year...a person who asserts that Bachmann is "done," is premature in saying so.
But below are links to news stories today that suggest that Bachmann is already "done," courtesy of MPR's Capitol round-up...
(CONTINUED)
Another reporter circulating the "she may be done" story ("but don't quote me on that, I have a little disclaimer in my story about how much time there is left til election day") is "The Incredible Chris Cillizza," of the Washington Post.
Cillizza's piece suggests that Bachmann is done because the GOP rank-and-file want someone with some definite experience and credibility on the economy. Once again, Cillizza is in error. We know from past experience that Republican voters will consider any moron for the presidency or vice-presidency--whether that moron is "good on the economy" or not.
The moron who is anointed by the Republican establishment, the Christian right, and/or the conservative media will get the nod. (McCain got two out of three, and rounded up the Christian right at last via "the Palin pick and fear of a black president.")
The will of the Republican rank-and-file has little or nothing to do with who the nominees will ultimately be. (We know this, because the rank-and file didn't want McCain. We know that the GOP rank-and-file are largely irrelevant, because we saw them place Rudy Giuliani as a front runner last time--and we all know what happened to Giuliani, and that the national GOP polling preference could not save him.)
So much for Cillizza's theory that the 'focus of the GOP voters on the economy and economic experience is determinative, here.' The GOP voters can "focus" on whatever the hell they want--in the end, they will get what the three groups named above decide to give them.
Right now, Bachmann's chances are very bad. As the various articles belwo point out, she's losing her core constituencies (tea party and evangelical right) to Perry.
Again: Cillizza believes this is happening because the GOP voters "lack faith" in economic qualifications. Again, I disagree: she's losing ground to Perry because this summer a whole bunch of national media have been running press about how "she's a nut."
I believe that that negative attention to her mind and record--in serious, non-partisan media--is part of the reason that the three groups I mentioned above are now pushing the "it's Perry" meme. It's very hard to stay ahead in the polls when the media has changed the national question from "does she have enough experience" to "is she really that nuts?"
But I am not writing her off completely, yet. People who have been quick to do so in the past, have often lived to pretend that they never said any such thing. She has returned, again and again.
I can give you my reasons for refusing to write her off, but I have already done so--in print, for the last six years, after every Bachmann political reverse. (One of those reasons I regularly give: this "Bachmann story" is not just about Bachmann. It's about a new, national, very powerful American political institution that most of you don't even understand: they will decide "when Bachmann's done/when her political career's over/when she's "Fred Thompsoned.")
If you insist she is done--well, I hope you are right. And I know that some people get a thrill out of taking a chance on being "the first with the correct prediction." (If their prediction turns out to be wrong, such people quickly retreat into the shadows of "I hope everybody forgets I said that.")
For this writer, the ability to accurately predict the future no longer holds the thrills that it used to, six years ago.
LINK: (MPR's collection of today's "is Bachmann done?" stories, in their Daily Digest.)
http://minnesota.publicradio.o...
LINK: (Cillizza on Bachmann's done, but I don't really want to commit to that view that I just tried to convince you of...)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...