1) it's over, for Bachmann
or
2) it's far from over, for Bachmann.
This stuff I'm citing today is "horse race" political coverage.
There are still people who actually understand what politics is really about (it's about power, reform, the economy, justice, war or peace, etc.) They don't like the fact that most of the traditional media coverage in the run up to elections is about the "horse race"--which politicians are ahead right now, which are behind, who this week's biggest loser and biggest winner were in the "horse race."
But the traditional can't resist this meta-narrative. Instead of focusing on candidate positions (or deliberate lack of same) they go with the horse race--because it's dramatic, guarantees an audience, and is so, so easy to cover. (It's a lot easier to publish poll results and pundit predictions than corner candidates on issue positions that are going to affect us all after the elections are over.)
But I cover Bachmann, and she is now a contender--so I have to do some horse race, too. She's a nut, but she's still in the horse race--so that goes in the Bizarro World file, too...
Here's a Rasmussen poll (yeah, I know, I know about Rasmussen) that shows Perry beating Obama. Bachmann doesn't beat Obama in the same poll. Romney doesn't beat Obama, in the same poll.
(CONTINUED)
Texas' Rick Perry beats Obama for first time in pollBy Maria Recio
McClatchy NewspapersWASHINGTON - For the first time, Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads President Barack Obama in a national poll, by 44 to 41 percent, while his GOP rivals trail in head-to-head match-ups against the president.
The new Rasmussen poll signals a breakthrough for Perry, who trailed Obama by 3 percentage points in last week's Rasmussen poll. The latest survey of 1,000 likely voters, released Thursday, was conducted Aug. 23-30 and has an error margin of 3 percentage points...
...In the new Rasmussen poll, Romney trails Obama by 4 points, 43 to 39 percent. Earlier in the year Romney edged the president by 1 point. The new poll also found that Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., trails the president by 46 to 38 percent and businessman Herman Cain loses to him 42 to 35 percent.
So this week, it looks like Rasmussen wants Perry to be the GOP candidate. And it looks like Rasmussen wants Bachmann to be out of consideration for the top spot on the ticket. That's how I read this one.
Bachmann's "nut" baggage has been catching up with her, this summer. The major media profiles have been scathing--displacing the previous major media narrative that she's "a passionate voice and a real firecracker" who deserves serious consideration for head of government.
In my opinion, the new "she may well be a nut" narrative in the corporate media has helped Perry to "eat Bachmann's lunch"--he's been taking away a good deal of her core support in the tea party/evangelical right. So far, there isn't a "Rick Perry may well be a nut" narrative in the corporate media.
The other day a reporter called me and asked me if I thought Bachmann was done, in light of these developments. I hedged, and said: "Maybe, maybe not. But the best thing the conservatives and Republicans can do, right now, is keep her in the holster in case someone comes up with a picture of Rick Perry in a strip club with his head between four silicon breasts, next month."
NEXT:
According to these guys at Politico, Bachmann is not done. Far from it.
Conventional Wisdom says Rep. Michele Bachmann has had her 15 minutes of fame, eclipsed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry who has thrown his 10-gallon conservative hat into the presidential ring. To the contrary, the trash-talking, liberal-bashing Texan is exactly what Bachmann needs to have any hope of winning the Republican presidential nomination.For an underdog like Bachmann, nomination politics is rooted in creating momentum by defying the CW - that is, beating expectations big - in a high-profile shootout with one of those anointed as a front-runner...
(...so these authors believe it's all about the dynamics, the drama. And: Bachmann is a drama queen, perhaps even a drama empress. So the argument is that she may thrive in such circumstances.)
(I don't know. One of the facts about Bachmann that traditional media hasn't caught up to yet is that fact that she's stupid. There's this line on her that she's some kind of political genius because otherwise: how could a person with so few qualifications have come to the top, become a serious presidential contender--so quickly?)
(She's not a genius. The secret of her success consists in her mentors, not in Bachmann herself. Evidence of the stupidity and ignorance abounds, but this week's example is sufficient: she said she'd consider drilling for oil in the Everglades. There is no oil in the Everglades. And she said that, in Florida. They want to save the Everglades, in Florida. Even conservatives in Florida, won't back drilling for oil in the Everglades, where there's no oil. It was stupid to say that, in a primary state.)
(And there was no need to say it, in Florida or anywhere else. Q.E.D. : she's not just crazy, she's stupid.)
(So the reasons she rose this far have to do with the very powerful political players who have backed her throughout her career (the religious right, Fox, etc.), not with her native skills or intelligence.)
(But traditional media don't want to write about that reality.)
Bachmann can't win by a series of small successes. Iowa is her do-or-die moment, for if she can't win there, the doubts about her electability will grow and legitimately so.
(Yeah, that's right. If she loses in Iowa, she's probably out of contention for the top spot.)
A long drawn-out marathon only gives the establishment time to rally behind an anybody-but-Bachmann candidate.
(That would be interesting to watch. Bachmann running more or less openly against the will of her own party and constituents. But I don't think she could carry on such a marathon challenge--if Perry continues to grow, Bachmann's mentors in the national religious right will tell her it's over, go home. Because (at this writing) Perry is entirely acceptable to the national religious right, he's rounding up the national conservative media, and he brings a broader electability demographic.)
(They can stop her, cold. And the religious right doesn't need Michele, if Perry can do more for them in the way of bringing votes and power.)
(But she's not done yet! As these writers point out, Perry hasn't yet received the going over that Bachmann is currently receiving. There's a lot for conservatives and voters to question in his record--the slush fund for Texas businessmen who were Perry supporters, Perry's happy acceptance of federal deficit spending in his state, his claim that Medicare's a failure.)
(And maybe that strip club photo. After all, according to this Politico piece: he's an "Alpha Dog." Let's vet that dog!)
LINK: Rasmussen poll.
http://www.miamiherald.com/201...
LINK: Politico guest contributors on Bachmann electability.